The most blatant result of the European parliamentary elections held last weekend is that the biggest political group in the new parliament will be the Christian Democrat led Peoples’ parties. This is the first time since these elections began 20 years ago that the Socialists have been ousted from the top spot. Although most of the media attention has been directed to the fact that this represents a victory for the center-right, there are other factors which are equally significant about this election: the manner in which the losing parties are taking heed of or ignoring their losses, the reflection of national rather than European interests in the election results, and the unprecedented high percentage of absenteeism.
Many European politicians are licking their wounds with a prescription by which they declare that the European parliamentary elections have become like the American mid-terms where it is considered healthy for the opposition to come out ahead of the ruling party. Since 12 of the 15 European Union members have center-left governments, it’s a simple task to put this theory to the test. Only Ireland and Spain have center-right governments. Belgium’s was a coalition between Christian Democrats and Socialists and together they lost 17 of their 82 deputies. However, Belgium can hardly be taken as a case in point. The government has been involved in so many scandals that the vote and resulting resignation of premier Jean-Luc Dehaene were self-evident. In Spain, the conservatives confirmed their majority and if the Spanish Socialists benefited from these elections it was at the expense of the United Left. In Ireland, the conservatives also preserved their number of seats in the new European parliament. And from the other side of the fence, in France, Jospin’s Socialist government proved victorious over Chirac’s Gaulist right. So much for the theory of the likeness to our mid-terms: too many exceptions to the rule.
With respect to previous European parliamentary results, the popular center-right parties gained seats in Greece, Finland, and Switzerland and remained the same in Spain, Holland, Luxembourg, and Ireland. In Denmark, they lost seats in favor of the Socialists and in Belgium in favor of the Liberals. Although the Green party lost terrain in Germany, they gained considerable territory in France, Holland, and Belgium.
Reckoning with the results: British Prime Minister Tony Blair expressed great disappointed and willingness to reflect on the lessons to be learned from the results of these election. However, he remains committed to bringing his country gradually toward monetary union which is the factor that cost him this first humiliation since his triumph two years ago. The fact that several seats were won by adamant Euro-skeptics is proof that at the very least the timing of Blair’s Euro-evangelism is out of pace with the desires of his constituents.
Italian Prime Minister, Massimo D’Alema prefers to delude himself of his party’s victory. His party won only 17.4% compared to Berlusconi’s Forza Italia’s 25.2%. However, D’Alema prefers to compare apples and oranges. In calculating his victory he includes all 10 parties of his governing coalition. (That’s right, 10 parties! Gone are the days when the former Communists used to criticize the Christian Democrats for requiring a five party coalition in order to govern. What’s more, seven of these parties are so tiny that they’ve been baptized the seven dwarfs!) When counting the votes of the opposition, however, he includes only those of Forza Italia, ignoring all of the other center-right parties! As the saying goes in Italy, the wolf may lose its fur but not its vice. And the vice of the Communists has always been to find a way of dismissing as insignificant the will of the people!
German Chancellor Shroeder is not taking this election defeat lightly. In an act of self-criticism he said that he was taking personal responsibility for the outcome and promised to heed to the message sent by those voters who voted him into office only to change their minds 8 months later. He has already promised to enact a five point reform package on June 30 which includes substantial cuts to public spending and a mixed-bag economic policy which pretends to juggle the pros and cons of interventionism with those of the free market.
Without a doubt Europeans voted with their hearts in their home capitals rather than in Strasbourg. It is not European issues but domestic ones that influenced how people voted. The victory of moderate center-right parties in Germany and Italy has revealed the limits of leftist governments in those countries which in their brief period in office have managed to make employment rates and economic welfare plummet. In Spain, by contrast, Azanar’s government has succeeded in increasing economic growth by more than 3%.
As far as participation in these elections is concerned, the average European turnout was 57%. That may sound like a more than adequate showing according to American standards, but it represents a notable display of absenteeism with respect to European voting habits. One of the lowest shows was in Great Britain at 23%, down from 36.8% in the 1994 elections. One of the highest came from Italy at 70.8%, down from 74.6% in 1994. Many hypotheses have been forwarded to explain the poor turnout: from good weather, to voter apathy, to the fact that in many places polls were open only on Sunday.
It’s ironic that the turnout was so low now that the European parliament has become so much more important. The new Treaty of Amsterdam signed in June 1997 considerably increased the power of the European Parliament. The EP was given co-decision powers with the Council in a number of areas and the President of the Commission now requires parliamentary endorsement. The new members now have five years to convince the citizens of Europe that the decisions taken by their assembly have a direct influence in their daily lives.
June 1999
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