British and French elections: Is Europe really going left?
With the results of recent elections both in Britain and in France, 13 of the 15 nations of the European Union now have leftist governments. The only countries where the right is still in power are Spain and Germany, and Kohl’s situation does not inspire optimism for his chances of reelection next year. What is the real significance of these latest elections and what will the repercussions be for European monetary union?
The British election victory that went to Blair’s Labor party can be considered a healthy changing of the guards. Healthy, in that one of mainstays of democracy is the alternation of power. For all the good the Conservatives have done for Britain, especially in terms of economic reforms the result of which Britain’s comparatively low unemployment rate is only the most blatant example, a turnover of power after almost two decades of Conservative rule can only be considered desirable.
The same can hardly be said of the French. After two decades of Mitterand and the Socialists, the parliamentary elections in 1993 and the presidential elections in 1995 had proven a smashing victory for Jacques Chirac and the conservative parties. What caused Chirac to commit political suicide by calling early elections is beyond the comprehension of most political analysts. As twice Prime Minister during Mitterand’s presidency, Chirac knows only too well the difficulties of cohabitation when the ruling cabinet of ministers is up against a majority opposition in parliament.
Fortunately, the French constitution is very clear about delegating foreign affair issues to the role of the Presidency and domestic issues to the Premier and his cabinet. However, this is precisely what the international community is finding disconcerting. European monetary union is both an international and a domestic issue. The new Socialist premier’s commitments to the unemployment problem, shorter working weeks, and no wage cuts are far from being compatible with the conditions of the Maastricht treaty.
Despite both Blair’s and Jospin’s ideological commitments to their constituents both have made clear declarations of an equal pledge to Europe. The social-democratic governments of Sweden, Finland, and Holland have realized that in order to effectively overcome the unemployment problem, what is required are structural reforms not patchwork politics and they have all initiated such reforms with varying degrees of success. Italy’s communist government is having to face the same reality to the great disappointment of its supporters.
In all likelihood, if elections were to take place today in many of EU countries with leftist governments, the conservatives would win. This is a clear demonstration that the prospect of electoral victories in today’s Europe are not so much a question of right or left ideology, but the political success of whoever governs.
The Europeans are loathe to give up privileges that come under the heading of welfare, especially to governments who neglect to explain to them that the sacrifices are essential for survival and not just an optional.
June 1997
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